April 9 and April 22 Signals: Rare Market Indicators Suggesting the Worst Is Over

 

April 9 and April 22 Signals: Rare Market Indicators Suggesting the Worst Is Over

Rare NYSE Market Signal Emerges



The chart above displays the S&P 500 index (log scale) from 1980 to the present, highlighting important signal dates. What's particularly noteworthy is that over the past 9 trading days, the NYSE (New York Stock Exchange) has experienced two instances where more than 89% of stocks and trading volume were advancing. This rare market signal occurred on April 9 and April 22, 2025.

Historically Significant Signal

This phenomenon has historically been observed at significant market bottoms, including January 5, 1987, March 12, 2009, August 11, 2011, and April 8, 2020. According to research by Ryan Detrick, following this signal, the S&P 500 index has risen by an average of approximately 25% over the subsequent six months.

Return Data Following the Signal

As shown in the return table on the right side of the chart, the performance following this signal has been impressive:

  • 1-Month Return: Average 7.4%, Median 8.0%
  • 3-Month Return: Average 16.1%, Median 16.9%
  • 6-Month Return: Average 24.7%, Median 22.6%
  • 12-Month Return: Average 31.2%, Median 35.0%

Particularly notable is the 100% success rate for 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month returns. This means that in all past instances when this signal occurred, the market always rose over periods of 3 months or longer.

Why This Signal Matters

The significance of this signal can be examined from two perspectives:

  1. Broad Market Participation: When over 89% of stocks on the NYSE are advancing, it indicates strong buying pressure across the entire market, not limited to specific sectors or large-cap stocks.

  2. Signal Repetition: While the first day of strong advancement can be considered a "clue," the occurrence of a similar strong advancement within 9 days serves as a "signal" confirming the market's direction.

Relevance to the Current Economic Situation

As of April 2025, there are economic concerns, with Goldman Sachs warning of a 45% recession risk. Additionally, President Trump is urging the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, while some experts warn that such policies could raise mortgage rates and inflation (as reported by Newsweek on April 19, 2025).

Despite these economic concerns, this NYSE signal has historically been a powerful indicator marking market bottoms, suggesting a positive outlook for market recovery in the coming months.

Expert Perspective

Ryan Detrick is a Chartered Market Technician with over 20 years of experience. Through this data-driven insight, he highlights an important market signal that could offset concerns about economic downturn.

Implications for Investors

This rare market signal provides several implications for investors:

  1. Potential Market Bottom Formation: Based on historical data, the current market may have formed a significant bottom.

  2. Medium to Long-term Investment Opportunity: As seen in past cases, substantial gains have followed such signals over the 6 to 12-month period.

  3. Broad Market Recovery: This signal suggests a recovery across the entire market, not just in specific sectors or stocks.

Conclusion

The unusual phenomenon of over 89% of stocks and trading volume advancing twice within 9 days on the NYSE has occurred only four times since 1980, and in all cases, it marked important market bottoms. The signal that emerged on April 9 and April 22 suggests that the worst may be over, and based on historical data, indicates a potential S&P 500 rise of approximately 25% over the next six months.

While past performance does not guarantee future results, such rare and powerful market signals can serve as valuable reference points for investors.

Source: Ryan Detrick's Twitter

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